Translation of "Grippe aviaire et traitement"

Avian influenza and treatment
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Dr Michel S.F.Vermeulen

Oseltamivir or Tamiflu (brand name) made by Roche firm, constitutes one of the only answers to cope with the painful first moments of the avian flu pandemic. It will enable to save many human lives, before the vaccine can be developed to lessen the death toll of the final mutant virus.

To develop the vaccine based on the identification of the inter-human transmission can take up to 5 months, after which the industrial production will only start. It only takes 3 months for the infection to circle the globe. Following scientific specialists, the flu pandemic is inevitable, but no one can predict when it will start. All we know is that days are counted before the beginning of this scourge.

Following most pessimist previsions, the death toll could arise to some 150 million, and one can fear that all administrative activities of a country could be paralysed by the huge number of simultaneous non active people: those sick or dead. In order to save the world populations, it is therefore essential to have sufficient stockpiles of Oseltamivir and therefore to extend and allow other pharmaceutical companies to produce the drug which is, for the moment, the exclusivity of Roche firm. In this way, we can hope to cover the enormous needs of the world’s population. Economic laws exists concerning medical patents in accordance to the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) on intellectual property which is fair in normal circumstances. But in the view of this menacing situation, it should be possible to conceive the production of one unique generic by the various pharmaceutical firms possessing the capacities of manufacturing and production of Oseltamivir. Time is running out and it seems difficult to keep it a high priority as it fades away against our daily preoccupations.

It is clearly evident that one must recognise as a priority the necessity to set up increased and sufficient stockpile of Oseltamivir, in order to ensure a first line of defence in the face of the outbreak of the pandemic, however this would involve huge costs. It should be possible to set up economic agreements between Roche firm and other pharmaceutical firms. These agreements should take into account the efforts of each party in the production of the generic drug, allowing a specific favour to the initial drug discoverer firm. These agreements need to be negotiated by specialists and I admit I have no experience of solving these conflicts of interest, but facing a threat which concerns the entire humanity’s future, I dare hope that human wisdom will enable to overcome economic interests.

The final question is : should we leave to one company the profits of under-production of such a vital drug for humanity for the only sake of respecting commercial and money laws and leave the world to it’s fatal fate.

I would be pleased if all competent people sensitive to this problem and who consider it relevant, could contribute to develop these thoughts, with the aim of succeeding in a concrete action.

Thank you.


Dr Michel S. F. Vermeulen

109 avenue Eugene Demolder
B-1030 Brussels